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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd