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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still