Amid the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.
The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.
He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.
Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.
Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers
It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.
We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.
