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China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.