A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
